2013 ELECTIONS RECAP

Another Visalia City Council election cycle has come and gone.  The following contains a few observations from a wannabe political scientist that may be of help to future candidates.

I believe that the clear message from voters in 2013 was “stay the course.”  In 2009, there were ten candidates running for three open positions on our city council.  Due to dissatisfaction with the economy locally and FEMA flood insurance, the 2009 incumbents were replaced by three new challengers.  However, in 2013, with the local economy mending, the construction industry heating up again, and with many new businesses in-filling Mooney Blvd., there were only five candidates for the three open positions on the council, the three incumbents and two challengers.

At the outset, as an incumbent, I made certain strategic campaign decisions.  Anticipating that there wouldn’t be much media coverage, I determined to use the old “rope-a-dope” strategy of Mohammad Ali.  Besides emphasizing the progress the city has made in the last four years, and my goals for the next four years if re-elected, I determined to lean back on the ropes and fend off the anticipated blows, rather than countering.  While some soft jabs were landed, the campaign remained cordial throughout.  As a challenger four years ago, I found that I spent a tremendous amount of time fund-raising.  As an incumbent this time, I found that fund-raising came much easier, particularly from the same supporters as before.  I reused prior campaign signs, which not only was a tremendous cost savings, but allowed me to post my large signs earlier while the competition was still ordering theirs, although I did take quite a bit of good-natured ribbing for that strategy.  I determined to only spend about one-third of what I spent four years ago on advertising, mainly because as an incumbent, I already had the name recognition.  Likewise, I took advantage of incumbency by attending as many special invitation events as I could, and speaking to community groups.  In a good economy, the incumbent enjoys a distinct advantage, and thus I came up with the slogan that “we are better off than four years ago” to emphasize that.

As to the election itself, being an off-year election, I correctly anticipated that the turnout would be low.  Additionally, most of those voters were the established “old Visalia” voters that can be counted on to turn out.  Again, a low 20% voter turnout usually favors the incumbents.  Even the mail-in balloting was an advantage, since 70% or more voted in advance of the November 5 election day.  This allowed me to target my advertising in late September and early October, geared towards the early voters.  Taking advantage of essentially a free website and Facebook page, I put the details of my campaign and platform on that.  I was able to downsize my advertising print budget and refer voters to those online resources.

A little luck also came into play.  Candidates’ names are not placed on the ballot in alphabetical order.  Instead, the Secretary of State earlier in the year did an alphabet drawing to determine what order  names would appear on ballots throughout the state, based upon the first letter of the last name of each candidate.  Of course, the letter “G” was drawn first, meaning my name appeared first on the ballot with the word “incumbent” following it.  I’ve heard that having your name first on the ballot translates into a bump in votes.

I also determined to pay for a candidate’s statement to be published by the Tulare County Election’s office and distributed with the ballots.  This has become more expensive each year, this time costing $3,800.00!  For that reason, only two of the five candidates for city council had a candidate’s statement.  While I believe this to be a publicity advantage, I felt that the county’s brochure was undersized and somewhat difficult to read for the price.  Based upon the increasing cost trend, this campaign tool may be used less in the future.


As to small campaign yard signs, I tried to get those distributed in neighborhoods, rather than on major arterials.  I believe that yard signs within neighborhoods are much more effective, and cause neighbors to talk to each other to discuss the candidates.

There you have it, my top secret election strategy and post-election analysis.  Congratulations to the incumbents who are back in office for another four years, as well as to the challengers for running a good race.  Thank you to all Visalians who got involved with sign distribution, attended candidates forums, educated themselves on the candidates and issues, and voted.  I’ve heard it said that government is not run by a majority of the people; rather it is run by a majority of the people who participate.


Warren Gubler
Visalia City Councilmember
wgubler@ci.visalia.ca.us
(559) 713-4400 x 3313