The November 2011 Visalia city council elections are now history. Noting the dearth of analysis in the local news media, I’ll put on my political scientist hat and provide my own analysis thereof.
Incumbents Bob Link and Amy Shuklian retained their seats, and well-known former councilman, Greg Collins, reclaimed the vacant third seat. The message sent loud and clear by the electorate was “stay the course,” unlike the November 2009 election when the theme was all about change and becoming more business friendly. The challengers in the 2011 campaign failed to articulate any convincing issue or problem that needed to be addressed, which would give the electorate a reason to make more changes. Can you, as a reader, remember even one campaign issue that was raised in 2011? Although my seat on the council was not up for election this cycle, my (perhaps self-serving) analysis is that Visalians have been satisfied with the direction the city council has taken for the last two years, keeping the budget in check and maximizing our limited resources during this economic downturn.
Having observed Visalia elections for almost thirty years now, it is clear to me that the low voter turnout of 23% correlated with the lack of issues, along with this being an off-year election. In low voter turnout years, you can depend on “old Visalia” voters to get out the vote and to dictate the election results.
Of the 11,411 votes cast, 7,771were by mail-in ballots (68%). You might ask “what difference does that make?” Voting by mail is so much more convenient. For the price of a postage stamp, you can avoid the cost and the time of driving to your polling station and waiting in line there. Voting by mail begins in early October, almost one month prior to election day. Mail-in voters tend to vote early, usually because they are conscientious and organized, not wanting extra paperwork lying around on their desktop. Inexperienced campaigners often wait until the last week or two before November election day to make a final advertising blitz through the local media. By then, it is usually too late to influence the mail-in voters, since they have already voted! An example from the 2011 election would be the firefighters’ endorsement. I observed that their signs went up in mid-to-late October, long after the commencement of the mail-in voting. I would add that their endorsement can provide a “firefighters’ bump,” such that in a close election, their endorsement may make the difference. However, this was not a close race, and Visalians demonstrated an independent streak, voting based upon their own view of the candidates and issues.
For candidates in future campaigns, I make the following suggestions:
1. Get involved in the community. Don’t just be “city hall groupies,” Visalia voters tend to favor those who have grown up outside the political circles. Join a service club or the board of a non-profit, get involved with local youth sports, and volunteer in other activities in the business community.
2. Become successful in your field of employment. This will not only provide you with the experience to lead and make tough decisions, but may give you the time to serve your community on the council.
3. Volunteer to serve on a city subcommittee, and attend some city council meetings. Review the council agendas and staff reports that are provided online at the city’s website. This will bring you up to speed on the issues facing Visalia. For example, it was reported to me that one of the recent candidates didn’t know what the “scenic corridor” was, when questioned about it!
4. Get started early with campaigning and advertising. Don’t forget about or discount the early mail-in voters.
Finally, an observation. It takes a lot of intestinal fortitude to put one’s name and reputation out there before the electorate. While a campaign can be interesting and stimulating, it can also lay one open to personal scrutiny and criticism. So to all the candidates who made the effort to run, I give great big kudos. As to the election victors, I likewise give my hearty congratulations, and I look forward to working with you over the next two years on the Visalia City Council.
If you have questions or topics regarding the city which you would like to have addressed in future articles, please email Warren at wgubler@ci.visalia.ca.us, or call (559) 713-4400 x 3313. For past articles, visit directfromwarren.blogspot.com.
Warren Gubler
Visalia City Council Member
